SEEING IS BELIEVING

It appears that it did evolve once it was in Europe. The first wave of it hit the soldiers in the spring. It was known as the 3 day flu because large numbers of them caught it, were sick for 3 days and then recovered.

Then it went unnoticed until around September 1918 — when it spread throughout the world and in 3 months killed many more people than the war itself. From at peace Spain (which was unfairly blamed for it) to the South Pacific to remove Eskimo villages in Alaska.

Perhaps the deadly 1918 flu had its deadly origins for BOTH reasons :

1. It was a mutated avian flu that people did not have any acquired immunity for.

• 2. Wartime conditions encouraged it to retain and/or increase its lethality, by rewarding it for disabling and killing soldiers so fast and easily.

What does this mean for bird flu today?

We already know it’s a mutated avian flu we have no acquired immunity for. It kills over half of its human victims.

There is no major, intense war underway — but many people in large megacities of the developing world from Rio to Calcutta live in extreme density. One sick person lying in the corner of a corrugated iron hovel could infect many close family members and neighbors. If a pandemic struck, many would be transported to large and overcrowded medical centers.

In such conditions, a bird flu mutation would likely retain or evolve its extreme lethality.

And what if it was “only” as lethal as the virus that caused the 1968 “Hong Kong” virus?

According to the CDC, the 1968 virus would today kill 2 to 7 million people around the world. From 89,000 to 207,000 people just in the U.S. That would not be a worst case scenario but it would certainly cause a lot of fear and concern.

Therefore, bird flu does not have to evolve into a strain as deadly as 1918, to pose a threat to millions of people around the world. Even without a major world war, we are at risk from a bird flu pandemic.

Tags: avian flu, avian influenza, bird flu, H1N1, H5N1, health, Healthy, swine flu

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 10th, 2009 at 3:40 pm and is filed under Dissease & Condition. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.